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Tarazona vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Tarazona
Tarazona
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
12/16/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Estadio Municipal de Tarazona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tarazona47%
×Draw30%
Rayo Majadahonda24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarazona
1.23
Rayo Majadahonda
0.78

Tarazona creates 58% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 72 away

creates per match

Tarazona
1.00
Rayo Majadahonda
0.96

allows per match

Tarazona
0.61
Rayo Majadahonda
1.46

finishing

Tarazona+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarazona ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tarazona or draw
76%
Tarazona or Rayo Majadahonda
70%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
53%

Winning margin

Tarazona wins by 2+
21%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tarazona 1+ goals
71%
Tarazona 2+ goals
35%
Tarazona 3+ goals
13%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
54%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
18%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tarazona (draw refunded)
67%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarazona at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.61 · 38 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarazona attack 1.00 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Tarazona defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tarazona scores more
47%
level
30%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
24%

Tarazona at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tarazona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Tarazona 2–0 Rayo Majadahonda

Tarazona beat Rayo Majadahonda 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Tarazona in Tarazona.