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Tarazona vs Juventud Torremolinos — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Tarazona
Tarazona
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
4/26/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Municipal de Tarazona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tarazona44%
×Draw28%
Juventud Torremolinos28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarazona
1.33
Juventud Torremolinos
1.01

Tarazona creates 32% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tarazona
1.09
Juventud Torremolinos
1.05

allows per match

Tarazona
0.97
Juventud Torremolinos
1.58

finishing

Tarazona+0.00on par
Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarazona ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tarazona or draw
72%
Tarazona or Juventud Torremolinos
72%
Draw or Juventud Torremolinos
56%

Winning margin

Tarazona wins by 2+
20%
Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tarazona 1+ goals
74%
Tarazona 2+ goals
38%
Tarazona 3+ goals
15%
Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
64%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
27%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tarazona (draw refunded)
61%
Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarazona at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarazona attack 1.09 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.33

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.05 + Tarazona defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tarazona scores more
44%
level
28%
Juventud Torremolinos scores more
28%

Tarazona at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tarazona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Tarazona 0–0 Juventud Torremolinos

Tarazona and Juventud Torremolinos drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 26, 2026.

The match was played at Municipal de Tarazona in Tarazona.