Tarazona 1–0 Celta de Vigo II: Result & Stats

Tarazona

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Celta de Vigo II

3/30/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Estadio Municipal de Tarazona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tarazona40%

×Draw30%

Celta de Vigo II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TarazonaExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.97

Tarazona

1.15

Celta de Vigo II

0.97

Tarazona creates 19% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 120 away

1.00

creates per match

1.33

0.61

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Tarazona

1.00

Celta de Vigo II

1.33

allows per match

Tarazona

0.61

Celta de Vigo II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tarazona+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarazona ↓

Celta de Vigo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tarazona or draw

69%

Tarazona or Celta de Vigo II

70%

Draw or Celta de Vigo II

60%

Winning margin

Tarazona wins by 2+

17%

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tarazona 1+ goals

68%

Tarazona 2+ goals

32%

Tarazona 3+ goals

11%

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

62%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

25%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tarazona (draw refunded)

57%

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarazona at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.61 · 38 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarazona attack 1.00 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Tarazona defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tarazona scores more

40%

level

30%

Celta de Vigo II scores more

31%

Tarazona at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tarazona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Tarazona 1–0 Celta de Vigo II

Tarazona beat Celta de Vigo II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Tarazona in Tarazona.

Tarazona vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Tarazona 1–0 Celta de Vigo II