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Tarazona vs Barbastro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Tarazona
Tarazona
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Barbastro
Barbastro
10/31/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 12Estadio Municipal de Tarazona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tarazona56%
×Draw24%
Barbastro20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarazona
1.74
Barbastro
0.95

Tarazona creates 83% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 59 away

creates per match

Tarazona
2.31
Barbastro
1.51

allows per match

Tarazona
0.38
Barbastro
1.17

finishing

Tarazona+0.00on par
Barbastro+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarazona ↓

Barbastro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tarazona or draw
80%
Tarazona or Barbastro
76%
Draw or Barbastro
44%

Winning margin

Tarazona wins by 2+
31%
Barbastro wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tarazona 1+ goals
82%
Tarazona 2+ goals
52%
Tarazona 3+ goals
25%
Barbastro 1+ goals
61%
Barbastro 2+ goals
25%
Barbastro 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tarazona (draw refunded)
73%
Barbastro (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarazona at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.38 · 13 matches

Barbastro away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarazona attack 2.31 + Barbastro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.74

Barbastro attack 1.51 + Tarazona defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tarazona scores more
56%
level
24%
Barbastro scores more
20%

Tarazona at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tarazona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tarazona vs Barbastro

Tarazona beat Barbastro 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on October 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Tarazona in Tarazona.