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Tarazona vs Amorebieta — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Tarazona
Tarazona
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Amorebieta
Amorebieta
10/27/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Estadio Municipal de Tarazona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tarazona55%
×Draw27%
Amorebieta18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarazona
1.42
Amorebieta
0.68

Tarazona creates 109% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tarazona
1.00
Amorebieta
0.74

allows per match

Tarazona
0.61
Amorebieta
1.84

finishing

Tarazona+0.00on par
Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarazona ↓

Amorebieta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tarazona or draw
82%
Tarazona or Amorebieta
73%
Draw or Amorebieta
45%

Winning margin

Tarazona wins by 2+
28%
Amorebieta wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tarazona 1+ goals
76%
Tarazona 2+ goals
41%
Tarazona 3+ goals
17%
Amorebieta 1+ goals
49%
Amorebieta 2+ goals
15%
Amorebieta 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tarazona (draw refunded)
75%
Amorebieta (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarazona at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.61 · 38 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarazona attack 1.00 + Amorebieta defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.42

Amorebieta attack 0.74 + Tarazona defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tarazona scores more
55%
level
27%
Amorebieta scores more
18%

Tarazona at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tarazona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Tarazona 3–0 Amorebieta

Tarazona beat Amorebieta 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Tarazona in Tarazona.