Taraz 0–1 Maqtaaral: Result & Stats

Taraz

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Maqtaaral

10/1/2022

Premier League · Round 21Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Taraz42%

×Draw27%

Maqtaaral31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TarazExpected goals in this matchMaqtaaral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.14

Taraz

1.36

Maqtaaral

1.14

Taraz creates 19% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 26 away

1.15

creates per match

1.00

1.27

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Taraz

1.15

Maqtaaral

1.00

allows per match

Taraz

1.27

Maqtaaral

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Taraz+0.00on par

Maqtaaral+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taraz ↓

Maqtaaral →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Taraz or draw

69%

Taraz or Maqtaaral

73%

Draw or Maqtaaral

58%

Winning margin

Taraz wins by 2+

19%

Maqtaaral wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Taraz 1+ goals

74%

Taraz 2+ goals

39%

Taraz 3+ goals

16%

Maqtaaral 1+ goals

68%

Maqtaaral 2+ goals

32%

Maqtaaral 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Taraz (draw refunded)

57%

Maqtaaral (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taraz at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 48 matches

Maqtaaral away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taraz attack 1.15 + Maqtaaral defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.36

Maqtaaral attack 1.00 + Taraz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Taraz scores more

42%

level

27%

Maqtaaral scores more

31%

Taraz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Taraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff