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Taraz vs FK Aksu — Premier League 2019

Taraz
Taraz
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
FK Aksu
FK Aksu
9/10/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Taraz51%
×Draw25%
FK Aksu24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taraz
1.59
FK Aksu
1.00

Taraz creates 59% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 26 away

creates per match

Taraz
1.15
FK Aksu
0.73

allows per match

Taraz
1.27
FK Aksu
2.04

finishing

Taraz+0.00on par
FK Aksu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taraz ↓

FK Aksu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Taraz or draw
76%
Taraz or FK Aksu
75%
Draw or FK Aksu
49%

Winning margin

Taraz wins by 2+
27%
FK Aksu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Taraz 1+ goals
80%
Taraz 2+ goals
47%
Taraz 3+ goals
21%
FK Aksu 1+ goals
63%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
26%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Taraz (draw refunded)
68%
FK Aksu (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taraz at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 48 matches

FK Aksu away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taraz attack 1.15 + FK Aksu defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.59

FK Aksu attack 0.73 + Taraz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Taraz scores more
51%
level
25%
FK Aksu scores more
24%

Taraz at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Taraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taraz 3 – 4 FK Aksu

FK Aksu beat Taraz 4-3 in Premier League on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Taraz.