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Tarancón vs Valdepeñas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Tarancón
Tarancón
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Valdepeñas
Valdepeñas
3/7/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 25Polideportivo Estadio Municipal Tarancón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tarancón55%
×Draw27%
Valdepeñas17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarancón
1.41
Valdepeñas
0.66

Tarancón creates 114% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tarancón
1.34
Valdepeñas
0.41

allows per match

Tarancón
0.91
Valdepeñas
1.47

finishing

Tarancón+0.00on par
Valdepeñas+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarancón ↓

Valdepeñas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tarancón or draw
83%
Tarancón or Valdepeñas
73%
Draw or Valdepeñas
45%

Winning margin

Tarancón wins by 2+
28%
Valdepeñas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tarancón 1+ goals
76%
Tarancón 2+ goals
41%
Tarancón 3+ goals
17%
Valdepeñas 1+ goals
48%
Valdepeñas 2+ goals
14%
Valdepeñas 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tarancón (draw refunded)
76%
Valdepeñas (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarancón at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.91 · 111 matches

Valdepeñas away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarancón attack 1.34 + Valdepeñas defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.41

Valdepeñas attack 0.41 + Tarancón defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tarancón scores more
55%
level
27%
Valdepeñas scores more
17%

Tarancón at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tarancón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tarancón vs Valdepeñas

Tarancón beat Valdepeñas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on March 7, 2025.

The match was played at Polideportivo Estadio Municipal Tarancón in Tarancón.