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Tarancón vs Quintanar del Rey — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Tarancón
Tarancón
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Quintanar del Rey
Quintanar del Rey
10/29/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 8Polideportivo Estadio Municipal Tarancón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Tarancón37%
×Draw29%
Quintanar del Rey34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarancón
1.14
Quintanar del Rey
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 94 away

creates per match

Tarancón
1.34
Quintanar del Rey
1.23

allows per match

Tarancón
0.91
Quintanar del Rey
0.93

finishing

Tarancón+0.00on par
Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarancón ↓

Quintanar del Rey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tarancón or draw
66%
Tarancón or Quintanar del Rey
71%
Draw or Quintanar del Rey
63%

Winning margin

Tarancón wins by 2+
15%
Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tarancón 1+ goals
68%
Tarancón 2+ goals
32%
Tarancón 3+ goals
11%
Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals
66%
Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals
29%
Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tarancón (draw refunded)
52%
Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarancón at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.91 · 111 matches

Quintanar del Rey away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.93 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarancón attack 1.34 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.14

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.23 + Tarancón defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tarancón scores more
37%
level
29%
Quintanar del Rey scores more
34%

Tarancón at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tarancón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tarancón vs Quintanar del Rey

Quintanar del Rey beat Tarancón 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Polideportivo Estadio Municipal Tarancón in Tarancón.