Tarancón 1–2 Manchego: Result & Stats

Tarancón

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Manchego

I. E. Sima 44'

J. Ramon 90'

Juanra 11'

10/4/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 5Polideportivo Estadio Municipal Tarancón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Tarancón40%

×Draw29%

Manchego30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TarancónExpected goals in this matchManchego

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.98

Tarancón

1.18

Manchego

0.98

Tarancón creates 20% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 94 away

1.34

creates per match

1.05

0.91

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Tarancón

1.34

Manchego

1.05

allows per match

Tarancón

0.91

Manchego

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tarancón+0.00on par

Manchego+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarancón ↓

Manchego →

0–012%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tarancón or draw

70%

Tarancón or Manchego

71%

Draw or Manchego

60%

Winning margin

Tarancón wins by 2+

17%

Manchego wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tarancón 1+ goals

69%

Tarancón 2+ goals

33%

Tarancón 3+ goals

12%

Manchego 1+ goals

62%

Manchego 2+ goals

26%

Manchego 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tarancón (draw refunded)

57%

Manchego (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tarancón at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.91 · 111 matches

Manchego away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.01 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tarancón attack 1.34 + Manchego defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.18

Manchego attack 1.05 + Tarancón defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tarancón scores more

40%

level

29%

Manchego scores more

30%

Tarancón at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tarancón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Juanra

44'

I. E. Sima

90'

J. Ramon

Tarancón

Manchego

Manager: Jorge Cañete

Manager: Emilio Cornago