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Tarancón vs Madridejos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Tarancón
Tarancón
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Madridejos
Madridejos
2/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 23Polideportivo Estadio Municipal Tarancón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tarancón55%
×Draw25%
Madridejos19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarancón
1.56
Madridejos
0.80

Tarancón creates 95% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 29 away

creates per match

Tarancón
1.34
Madridejos
0.69

allows per match

Tarancón
0.91
Madridejos
1.79

finishing

Tarancón+0.00on par
Madridejos+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarancón ↓

Madridejos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tarancón or draw
81%
Tarancón or Madridejos
75%
Draw or Madridejos
45%

Winning margin

Tarancón wins by 2+
29%
Madridejos wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tarancón 1+ goals
79%
Tarancón 2+ goals
46%
Tarancón 3+ goals
21%
Madridejos 1+ goals
55%
Madridejos 2+ goals
19%
Madridejos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tarancón (draw refunded)
74%
Madridejos (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarancón at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.91 · 111 matches

Madridejos away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarancón attack 1.34 + Madridejos defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

Madridejos attack 0.69 + Tarancón defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tarancón scores more
55%
level
25%
Madridejos scores more
19%

Tarancón at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tarancón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Tarancón 4–0 Madridejos

Tarancón beat Madridejos 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Polideportivo Estadio Municipal Tarancón in Tarancón.