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Tarancón vs Hogar Alcarreño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Tarancón
Tarancón
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hogar Alcarreño
Hogar Alcarreño
10/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 7Polideportivo Estadio Municipal Tarancón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tarancón73%
×Draw17%
Hogar Alcarreño10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarancón
2.41
Hogar Alcarreño
0.78

Tarancón creates 209% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tarancón
1.34
Hogar Alcarreño
0.65

allows per match

Tarancón
0.91
Hogar Alcarreño
3.47

finishing

Tarancón+0.00on par
Hogar Alcarreño+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarancón ↓

Hogar Alcarreño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Tarancón or draw
90%
Tarancón or Hogar Alcarreño
83%
Draw or Hogar Alcarreño
27%

Winning margin

Tarancón wins by 2+
50%
Hogar Alcarreño wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tarancón 1+ goals
91%
Tarancón 2+ goals
69%
Tarancón 3+ goals
43%
Hogar Alcarreño 1+ goals
54%
Hogar Alcarreño 2+ goals
18%
Hogar Alcarreño 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tarancón (draw refunded)
88%
Hogar Alcarreño (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarancón at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.91 · 111 matches

Hogar Alcarreño away — creates 0.65, concedes 3.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarancón attack 1.34 + Hogar Alcarreño defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.41

Hogar Alcarreño attack 0.65 + Tarancón defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Tarancón scores more
73%
level
17%
Hogar Alcarreño scores more
10%

Tarancón at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Tarancón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Tarancón 4–0 Hogar Alcarreño

Tarancón beat Hogar Alcarreño 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Polideportivo Estadio Municipal Tarancón in Tarancón.