Tarancón 0–2 Conquense: Result & Stats

Tarancón

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Conquense

4/23/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 30Polideportivo Estadio Municipal Tarancón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Tarancón36%

×Draw29%

Conquense34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TarancónExpected goals in this matchConquense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.06

Tarancón

1.10

Conquense

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 76 away

1.34

creates per match

1.22

0.91

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Tarancón

1.34

Conquense

1.22

allows per match

Tarancón

0.91

Conquense

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tarancón+0.00on par

Conquense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarancón ↓

Conquense →

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tarancón or draw

66%

Tarancón or Conquense

71%

Draw or Conquense

64%

Winning margin

Tarancón wins by 2+

15%

Conquense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tarancón 1+ goals

67%

Tarancón 2+ goals

30%

Tarancón 3+ goals

10%

Conquense 1+ goals

65%

Conquense 2+ goals

29%

Conquense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tarancón (draw refunded)

51%

Conquense (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tarancón at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.91 · 111 matches

Conquense away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tarancón attack 1.34 + Conquense defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.10

Conquense attack 1.22 + Tarancón defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tarancón scores more

36%

level

29%

Conquense scores more

34%

Tarancón at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tarancón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff