Tapatío 2–2 Venados FC: Result & Stats

Tapatío

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Venados FC

9/28/2024

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 10Estadio AKRON

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Tapatío49%

×Draw26%

Venados FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TapatíoExpected goals in this matchVenados FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.02

Tapatío

1.52

Venados FC

1.02

Tapatío creates 49% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 129 away

1.47

creates per match

0.98

1.05

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Tapatío

1.47

Venados FC

0.98

allows per match

Tapatío

1.05

Venados FC

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tapatío+0.00on par

Venados FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tapatío ↓

Venados FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tapatío or draw

75%

Tapatío or Venados FC

74%

Draw or Venados FC

51%

Winning margin

Tapatío wins by 2+

25%

Venados FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tapatío 1+ goals

78%

Tapatío 2+ goals

45%

Tapatío 3+ goals

20%

Venados FC 1+ goals

64%

Venados FC 2+ goals

27%

Venados FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tapatío (draw refunded)

66%

Venados FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tapatío at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Venados FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tapatío attack 1.47 + Venados FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Venados FC attack 0.98 + Tapatío defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tapatío scores more

49%

level

26%

Venados FC scores more

25%

Tapatío at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tapatío will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff