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Tapatío vs Durango — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tapatío
Tapatío
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Durango
Durango
6/30/2022Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 1Estadio AKRON

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tapatío54%
×Draw24%
Durango22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tapatío
1.68
Durango
0.97

Tapatío creates 73% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tapatío
1.47
Durango
0.89

allows per match

Tapatío
1.05
Durango
1.89

finishing

Tapatío+0.00on par
Durango+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tapatío ↓

Durango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tapatío or draw
78%
Tapatío or Durango
76%
Draw or Durango
46%

Winning margin

Tapatío wins by 2+
29%
Durango wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tapatío 1+ goals
81%
Tapatío 2+ goals
50%
Tapatío 3+ goals
24%
Durango 1+ goals
62%
Durango 2+ goals
25%
Durango 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tapatío (draw refunded)
71%
Durango (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tapatío at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Durango away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tapatío attack 1.47 + Durango defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.68

Durango attack 0.89 + Tapatío defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tapatío scores more
54%
level
24%
Durango scores more
22%

Tapatío at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tapatío will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Tapatío 3–1 Durango

Tapatío beat Durango 3-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on June 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio AKRON in Zapopan.