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Tapachula vs Venados FC — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tapachula
Tapachula
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Venados FC
Venados FC
8/12/2017Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Olímpico de Tapachula (Tapachula)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Tapachula52%
×Draw24%
Venados FC24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tapachula
1.69
Venados FC
1.08

Tapachula creates 56% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 132 away

creates per match

Tapachula
1.74
Venados FC
0.98

allows per match

Tapachula
1.18
Venados FC
1.64

finishing

Tapachula+0.00on par
Venados FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tapachula ↓

Venados FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tapachula or draw
76%
Tapachula or Venados FC
76%
Draw or Venados FC
48%

Winning margin

Tapachula wins by 2+
28%
Venados FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tapachula 1+ goals
82%
Tapachula 2+ goals
50%
Tapachula 3+ goals
24%
Venados FC 1+ goals
66%
Venados FC 2+ goals
29%
Venados FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tapachula (draw refunded)
68%
Venados FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tapachula at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

Venados FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.64 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tapachula attack 1.74 + Venados FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.69

Venados FC attack 0.98 + Tapachula defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tapachula scores more
52%
level
24%
Venados FC scores more
24%

Tapachula at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tapachula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Tapachula 1–1 Venados FC

Tapachula and Venados FC drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 12, 2017.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Tapachula (Tapachula).