Tapachula vs Potros Uaem — Liga de Expansión MX 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 22+ matches
Tapachula49%
Potros Uaem25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Tapachula creates 49% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 22 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tapachula ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tapachula at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches
Potros Uaem away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tapachula attack 1.69 + Potros Uaem defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.52
Potros Uaem attack 0.82 + Tapachula defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Tapachula at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Tapachula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
CDS Tampico Madero
Cancún
Tepatitlán
Atlante FC
Monarcas
Mineros de Zacatecas
Irapuato
CA La Paz
Tapatío
Leones Negros UDG
Venados FC
Tlaxcala
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Correcaminos Uat
DoradosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Tapachula host Potros Uaem on Sunday, 6 January 2019 at 01:00. The match is part of the Liga de Expansión MX 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Tapachula vs Potros Uaem
Potros Uaem beat Tapachula 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on January 6, 2019.
Goals: J. Echavarría (34').
The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Tapachula (Tapachula).