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Tapachula vs Potros Uaem — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tapachula
Tapachula
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Potros Uaem
Potros Uaem
11/13/2016Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 17Estadio Olímpico de Tapachula (Tapachula)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Tapachula50%
×Draw25%
Potros Uaem24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tapachula
1.57
Potros Uaem
1.01

Tapachula creates 55% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 34 away

creates per match

Tapachula
1.74
Potros Uaem
0.85

allows per match

Tapachula
1.18
Potros Uaem
1.41

finishing

Tapachula+0.00on par
Potros Uaem+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tapachula ↓

Potros Uaem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tapachula or draw
76%
Tapachula or Potros Uaem
75%
Draw or Potros Uaem
50%

Winning margin

Tapachula wins by 2+
26%
Potros Uaem wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tapachula 1+ goals
79%
Tapachula 2+ goals
46%
Tapachula 3+ goals
21%
Potros Uaem 1+ goals
64%
Potros Uaem 2+ goals
27%
Potros Uaem 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tapachula (draw refunded)
67%
Potros Uaem (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tapachula at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

Potros Uaem away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tapachula attack 1.74 + Potros Uaem defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.57

Potros Uaem attack 0.85 + Tapachula defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tapachula scores more
50%
level
25%
Potros Uaem scores more
24%

Tapachula at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tapachula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Tapachula 1–1 Potros Uaem

Tapachula and Potros Uaem drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on November 13, 2016.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Tapachula (Tapachula).