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Tapachula vs Mineros de Zacatecas — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tapachula
Tapachula
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
1/26/2020Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 1Estadio Víctor Manuel Reyna (Tuxtla Gutiérrez)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Tapachula46%
×Draw25%
Mineros de Zacatecas29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tapachula
1.60
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.21

Tapachula creates 32% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 135 away

creates per match

Tapachula
1.68
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.24

allows per match

Tapachula
1.19
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.53

finishing

Tapachula+0.00on par
Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tapachula ↓

Mineros de Zacatecas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tapachula or draw
71%
Tapachula or Mineros de Zacatecas
75%
Draw or Mineros de Zacatecas
54%

Winning margin

Tapachula wins by 2+
24%
Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tapachula 1+ goals
80%
Tapachula 2+ goals
47%
Tapachula 3+ goals
22%
Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals
70%
Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals
34%
Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tapachula (draw refunded)
62%
Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tapachula at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

Mineros de Zacatecas away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tapachula attack 1.68 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.24 + Tapachula defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tapachula scores more
46%
level
25%
Mineros de Zacatecas scores more
29%

Tapachula at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tapachula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tapachula vs Mineros de Zacatecas

Mineros de Zacatecas beat Tapachula 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Víctor Manuel Reyna (Tuxtla Gutiérrez).