Tapachula 1–1 Loros Universidad: Result & Stats

Tapachula

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Loros Universidad

9/15/2019

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 6Estadio Víctor Manuel Reyna (Tuxtla Gutiérrez)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tapachula46%

×Draw22%

Loros Universidad31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TapachulaExpected goals in this matchLoros Universidad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.52

Tapachula

1.89

Loros Universidad

1.52

Tapachula creates 24% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 7 away

1.77

creates per match

1.86

1.17

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Tapachula

1.77

Loros Universidad

1.86

allows per match

Tapachula

1.17

Loros Universidad

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tapachula+0.00on par

Loros Universidad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tapachula ↓

Loros Universidad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Tapachula or draw

69%

Tapachula or Loros Universidad

78%

Draw or Loros Universidad

54%

Winning margin

Tapachula wins by 2+

26%

Loros Universidad wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tapachula 1+ goals

85%

Tapachula 2+ goals

56%

Tapachula 3+ goals

29%

Loros Universidad 1+ goals

78%

Loros Universidad 2+ goals

45%

Loros Universidad 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Tapachula (draw refunded)

60%

Loros Universidad (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tapachula at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Loros Universidad away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tapachula attack 1.77 + Loros Universidad defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Loros Universidad attack 1.86 + Tapachula defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tapachula scores more

46%

level

22%

Loros Universidad scores more

31%

Tapachula at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tapachula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff