Tapachula vs Dorados — Liga de Expansión MX 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 32+ matches
Tapachula52%
Dorados24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Tapachula creates 60% more chances
Season form · 32 home / 121 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tapachula ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tapachula at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches
Dorados away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.79 · 121 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tapachula attack 1.69 + Dorados defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.74
Dorados attack 0.96 + Tapachula defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Tapachula at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Tapachula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
CDS Tampico Madero
Cancún
Tepatitlán
Atlante FC
Monarcas
Mineros de Zacatecas
Irapuato
CA La Paz
Tapatío
Leones Negros UDG
Venados FC
Tlaxcala
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Correcaminos UatDoradosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Tapachula host Dorados on Sunday, 24 February 2019 at 03:00. The match is part of the Liga de Expansión MX 2018/2019 season.
Liga de Expansión MX: Tapachula 2–2 Dorados
Tapachula and Dorados drew 2-2 in Liga de Expansión MX on February 24, 2019.
Goals: F. Bordagaray (32'), J. Escoboza (37'), A. Marín (41'), F. Arizala (71' pen).
The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Tapachula (Tapachula).