Tapachula 3–2 Dorados: Result & Stats

Tapachula

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Dorados

4/19/2018

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - Semi-finalsEstadio Olímpico de Tapachula (Tapachula)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Tapachula54%

×Draw23%

Dorados23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TapachulaExpected goals in this matchDorados

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.07

Tapachula

1.77

Dorados

1.07

Tapachula creates 65% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 124 away

1.74

creates per match

0.96

1.18

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Tapachula

1.74

Dorados

0.96

allows per match

Tapachula

1.18

Dorados

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tapachula+0.00on par

Dorados+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tapachula ↓

Dorados →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tapachula or draw

77%

Tapachula or Dorados

77%

Draw or Dorados

46%

Winning margin

Tapachula wins by 2+

30%

Dorados wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tapachula 1+ goals

83%

Tapachula 2+ goals

53%

Tapachula 3+ goals

26%

Dorados 1+ goals

66%

Dorados 2+ goals

29%

Dorados 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tapachula (draw refunded)

70%

Dorados (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tapachula at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

Dorados away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.80 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tapachula attack 1.74 + Dorados defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.77

Dorados attack 0.96 + Tapachula defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tapachula scores more

54%

level

23%

Dorados scores more

23%

Tapachula at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tapachula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff