Tapachula 0–1 Celaya: Result & Stats

Tapachula

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Celaya

2/23/2020

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 5Estadio Víctor Manuel Reyna (Tuxtla Gutiérrez)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Tapachula40%

×Draw27%

Celaya34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TapachulaExpected goals in this matchCelaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.22

Tapachula

1.35

Celaya

1.22

Tapachula creates 11% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 119 away

1.58

creates per match

1.15

1.29

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Tapachula

1.58

Celaya

1.15

allows per match

Tapachula

1.29

Celaya

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tapachula+0.00on par

Celaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tapachula ↓

Celaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tapachula or draw

66%

Tapachula or Celaya

73%

Draw or Celaya

60%

Winning margin

Tapachula wins by 2+

18%

Celaya wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tapachula 1+ goals

74%

Tapachula 2+ goals

39%

Tapachula 3+ goals

15%

Celaya 1+ goals

70%

Celaya 2+ goals

34%

Celaya 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tapachula (draw refunded)

54%

Celaya (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tapachula at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Celaya away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tapachula attack 1.58 + Celaya defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.35

Celaya attack 1.15 + Tapachula defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tapachula scores more

40%

level

27%

Celaya scores more

34%

Tapachula at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tapachula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff