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Tapachula vs Atlante FC — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tapachula
Tapachula
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Atlante FC
Atlante FC
9/4/2016Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Olímpico de Tapachula (Tapachula)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Tapachula42%
×Draw26%
Atlante FC32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tapachula
1.42
Atlante FC
1.19

Tapachula creates 19% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 152 away

creates per match

Tapachula
1.74
Atlante FC
1.21

allows per match

Tapachula
1.18
Atlante FC
1.10

finishing

Tapachula+0.00on par
Atlante FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tapachula ↓

Atlante FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tapachula or draw
68%
Tapachula or Atlante FC
74%
Draw or Atlante FC
58%

Winning margin

Tapachula wins by 2+
20%
Atlante FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tapachula 1+ goals
76%
Tapachula 2+ goals
41%
Tapachula 3+ goals
17%
Atlante FC 1+ goals
70%
Atlante FC 2+ goals
33%
Atlante FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tapachula (draw refunded)
57%
Atlante FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tapachula at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

Atlante FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.10 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tapachula attack 1.74 + Atlante FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.42

Atlante FC attack 1.21 + Tapachula defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tapachula scores more
42%
level
26%
Atlante FC scores more
32%

Tapachula at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tapachula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Tapachula 0–2 Atlante FC

Atlante FC beat Tapachula 2-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on September 4, 2016.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Tapachula (Tapachula).