Atlante FC 1–2 Tapachula: Result & Stats

Atlante FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tapachula

1/26/2019

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 4Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo (Cancún)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Atlante FC59%

×Draw23%

Tapachula18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlante FCExpected goals in this matchTapachula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.90

Atlante FC

1.83

Tapachula

0.90

Atlante FC creates 103% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 30 away

1.73

creates per match

1.17

0.62

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Atlante FC

1.73

Tapachula

1.17

allows per match

Atlante FC

0.62

Tapachula

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlante FC+0.00on par

Tapachula+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlante FC ↓

Tapachula →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Atlante FC or draw

82%

Atlante FC or Tapachula

77%

Draw or Tapachula

41%

Winning margin

Atlante FC wins by 2+

34%

Tapachula wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atlante FC 1+ goals

84%

Atlante FC 2+ goals

54%

Atlante FC 3+ goals

28%

Tapachula 1+ goals

59%

Tapachula 2+ goals

23%

Tapachula 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atlante FC (draw refunded)

77%

Tapachula (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlante FC at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.62 · 146 matches

Tapachula away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlante FC attack 1.73 + Tapachula defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.83

Tapachula attack 1.17 + Atlante FC defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Atlante FC scores more

59%

level

23%

Tapachula scores more

18%

Atlante FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Atlante FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff