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Tanzania W vs South Sudan W — Friendlies Women 2026

Tanzania W
Tanzania W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
South Sudan W
South Sudan W
A. Masaka 56', 35'
O. Clement Tukumbuke 34'
5/29/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tanzania W79%
×Draw12%
South Sudan W8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanzania W
3.17
South Sudan W
0.96

Tanzania W creates 230% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Tanzania W
1.83
South Sudan W
1.25

allows per match

Tanzania W
0.67
South Sudan W
4.50

finishing

Tanzania W+0.00on par
South Sudan W+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanzania W ↓

South Sudan W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Tanzania W or draw
92%
Tanzania W or South Sudan W
88%
Draw or South Sudan W
21%

Winning margin

Tanzania W wins by 2+
61%
South Sudan W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tanzania W 1+ goals
96%
Tanzania W 2+ goals
82%
Tanzania W 3+ goals
60%
South Sudan W 1+ goals
62%
South Sudan W 2+ goals
25%
South Sudan W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tanzania W (draw refunded)
91%
South Sudan W (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanzania W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

South Sudan W away — creates 1.25, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanzania W attack 1.83 + South Sudan W defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.17

South Sudan W attack 1.25 + Tanzania W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Tanzania W scores more
79%
level
12%
South Sudan W scores more
8%

Tanzania W at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Tanzania W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
O. Clement Tukumbuke
35'
A. Masaka
56'
A. Masaka

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tanzania W vs South Sudan W

Tanzania W beat South Sudan W 3-0 in Friendlies Women on May 29, 2024.

Goals: O. Clement Tukumbuke (34'), A. Masaka (35', 56').

The match was played at Azam Complex Stadium in Mbagala.