Tanzania 0–0 Congo DR: Result & Stats

Tanzania

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Congo DR

1/24/2024

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 3Stade Amadou Gon Coulibaly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tanzania34%

×Draw31%

Congo DR35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TanzaniaExpected goals in this matchCongo DR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.01

Tanzania

0.98

Congo DR

1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.17

creates per match

1.20

0.83

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Tanzania

1.17

Congo DR

1.20

allows per match

Tanzania

0.83

Congo DR

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tanzania+0.00on par

Congo DR+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanzania ↓

Congo DR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tanzania or draw

65%

Tanzania or Congo DR

69%

Draw or Congo DR

66%

Winning margin

Tanzania wins by 2+

13%

Congo DR wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tanzania 1+ goals

62%

Tanzania 2+ goals

26%

Tanzania 3+ goals

8%

Congo DR 1+ goals

64%

Congo DR 2+ goals

27%

Congo DR 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tanzania (draw refunded)

49%

Congo DR (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanzania at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Congo DR away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanzania attack 1.17 + Congo DR defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.98

Congo DR attack 1.20 + Tanzania defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Tanzania scores more

34%

level

31%

Congo DR scores more

35%

Congo DR at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Congo DR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff