Tanzania 0–2 Burkina Faso: Result & Stats

Tanzania

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Burkina Faso

C. Pitroipa 40'

A. Baguian 30'

1/9/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Gombani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tanzania45%

×Draw29%

Burkina Faso26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TanzaniaExpected goals in this matchBurkina Faso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.88

Tanzania

1.25

Burkina Faso

0.88

Tanzania creates 42% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

1.15

creates per match

0.90

0.85

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Tanzania

1.15

Burkina Faso

0.90

allows per match

Tanzania

0.85

Burkina Faso

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tanzania+0.00on par

Burkina Faso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanzania ↓

Burkina Faso →

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tanzania or draw

74%

Tanzania or Burkina Faso

71%

Draw or Burkina Faso

55%

Winning margin

Tanzania wins by 2+

20%

Burkina Faso wins by 2+

Team goals

Tanzania 1+ goals

71%

Tanzania 2+ goals

36%

Tanzania 3+ goals

13%

Burkina Faso 1+ goals

59%

Burkina Faso 2+ goals

22%

Burkina Faso 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tanzania (draw refunded)

63%

Burkina Faso (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tanzania at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Burkina Faso away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tanzania attack 1.15 + Burkina Faso defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Burkina Faso attack 0.90 + Tanzania defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tanzania scores more

45%

level

29%

Burkina Faso scores more

26%

Tanzania at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tanzania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

A. Baguian

40'

C. Pitroipa

Tanzania

Burkina

⚽

⚽

Manager: Hemed Suleiman Ali

Tanzania substitutes

18Mpemba14Katanga9Hussein2Mosha24Pipino10Suleiman20Lidah22Msimu8Kondo4Lyanga19Chikola21Ngushi

Manager: Issa Balboné

Burkina Faso substitutes

3Diarra18Kante21Sagne8Dao5Malo1Traore19Guel2Nikiema11Lougoutiogue16Sanou9Traore4Kone

Friendlies: Tanzania 0–2 Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso beat Tanzania 2-0 in Friendlies on January 9, 2025.

Goals: A. Baguian (30'), C. Pitroipa (40').

The match was played at Gombani Stadium in Gombani.

Tanzania vs Burkina Faso — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies: Tanzania 0–2 Burkina Faso