Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tanzania vs Bulgaria — Friendlies 2026

Tanzania
Tanzania
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
3/22/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Liv Bona Dea Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tanzania47%
×Draw29%
Bulgaria24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanzania
1.27
Bulgaria
0.82

Tanzania creates 55% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tanzania
1.15
Bulgaria
0.80

allows per match

Tanzania
0.85
Bulgaria
1.40

finishing

Tanzania+0.00on par
Bulgaria+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanzania ↓

Bulgaria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tanzania or draw
76%
Tanzania or Bulgaria
71%
Draw or Bulgaria
53%

Winning margin

Tanzania wins by 2+
21%
Bulgaria wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tanzania 1+ goals
72%
Tanzania 2+ goals
36%
Tanzania 3+ goals
14%
Bulgaria 1+ goals
56%
Bulgaria 2+ goals
20%
Bulgaria 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tanzania (draw refunded)
66%
Bulgaria (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanzania at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Bulgaria away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanzania attack 1.15 + Bulgaria defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bulgaria attack 0.80 + Tanzania defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tanzania scores more
47%
level
29%
Bulgaria scores more
24%

Tanzania at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tanzania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tanzania vs Bulgaria

Bulgaria beat Tanzania 1-0 in Friendlies on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Liv Bona Dea Arena in Baku.