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Tanzania Prisons vs Polisi Tanzania — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Polisi Tanzania
Polisi Tanzania
S. Mbangula 45'
J. Juma 4' (pen)
10/25/2022Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 9Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tanzania Prisons42%
×Draw32%
Polisi Tanzania26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanzania Prisons
1.06
Polisi Tanzania
0.77

Tanzania Prisons creates 38% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tanzania Prisons
0.92
Polisi Tanzania
1.20

allows per match

Tanzania Prisons
0.33
Polisi Tanzania
1.20

finishing

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par
Polisi Tanzania+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanzania Prisons ↓

Polisi Tanzania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tanzania Prisons or draw
74%
Tanzania Prisons or Polisi Tanzania
68%
Draw or Polisi Tanzania
58%

Winning margin

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
17%
Polisi Tanzania wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
65%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
29%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
9%
Polisi Tanzania 1+ goals
54%
Polisi Tanzania 2+ goals
18%
Polisi Tanzania 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
62%
Polisi Tanzania (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanzania Prisons at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.33 · 12 matches

Polisi Tanzania away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.92 + Polisi Tanzania defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Polisi Tanzania attack 1.20 + Tanzania Prisons defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tanzania Prisons scores more
42%
level
32%
Polisi Tanzania scores more
26%

Tanzania Prisons at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tanzania Prisons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
J. JumaPenalty
45'
S. Mbangula

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tanzania Prisons vs Polisi Tanzania

Tanzania Prisons beat Polisi Tanzania 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on October 25, 2022.

Goals: J. Juma (4' pen), S. Mbangula (45').

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.