Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tanzania Prisons vs Namungo — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Namungo
Namungo
12/21/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 14Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Tanzania Prisons38%
×Draw31%
Namungo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanzania Prisons
1.07
Namungo
0.95

Tanzania Prisons creates 13% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 110 away

creates per match

Tanzania Prisons
0.95
Namungo
0.87

allows per match

Tanzania Prisons
1.02
Namungo
1.20

finishing

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par
Namungo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanzania Prisons ↓

Namungo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tanzania Prisons or draw
68%
Tanzania Prisons or Namungo
69%
Draw or Namungo
62%

Winning margin

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
15%
Namungo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
66%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
29%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
9%
Namungo 1+ goals
61%
Namungo 2+ goals
25%
Namungo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
55%
Namungo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanzania Prisons at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Namungo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.20 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.95 + Namungo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Namungo attack 0.87 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tanzania Prisons scores more
38%
level
31%
Namungo scores more
32%

Tanzania Prisons at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tanzania Prisons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Tanzania Prisons 1–0 Namungo

Tanzania Prisons beat Namungo 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 21, 2023.

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.