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Namungo vs Tanzania Prisons — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Namungo
Namungo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
D. Mukombozi 84', 58'
B. Mwamlangara 61'
Z. Mayombya 33'
5/25/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 29Majaliwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Namungo46%
×Draw29%
Tanzania Prisons26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namungo
1.28
Tanzania Prisons
0.88

Namungo creates 45% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 36 away

creates per match

Namungo
1.00
Tanzania Prisons
0.69

allows per match

Namungo
1.06
Tanzania Prisons
1.56

finishing

Namungo+0.00on par
Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namungo ↓

Tanzania Prisons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Namungo or draw
74%
Namungo or Tanzania Prisons
71%
Draw or Tanzania Prisons
54%

Winning margin

Namungo wins by 2+
21%
Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Namungo 1+ goals
72%
Namungo 2+ goals
37%
Namungo 3+ goals
14%
Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
59%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
22%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Namungo (draw refunded)
64%
Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namungo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

Tanzania Prisons away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namungo attack 1.00 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.69 + Namungo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Namungo scores more
46%
level
29%
Tanzania Prisons scores more
26%

Namungo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Namungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
Z. Mayombya
58'
D. Mukombozi
61'
B. Mwamlangara
84'
D. Mukombozi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Namungo 2–2 Tanzania Prisons

Namungo and Tanzania Prisons drew 2-2 in Ligi kuu Bara on May 25, 2024.

Goals: Z. Mayombya (33'), D. Mukombozi (58', 84'), B. Mwamlangara (61').

The match was played at Majaliwa Stadium in Ruangwa.