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Tanzania Prisons vs Mtibwa Sugar — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mtibwa Sugar
Mtibwa Sugar
2/3/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 22Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tanzania Prisons50%
×Draw29%
Mtibwa Sugar22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanzania Prisons
1.32
Mtibwa Sugar
0.77

Tanzania Prisons creates 71% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

creates per match

Tanzania Prisons
0.97
Mtibwa Sugar
0.50

allows per match

Tanzania Prisons
1.03
Mtibwa Sugar
1.68

finishing

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par
Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanzania Prisons ↓

Mtibwa Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tanzania Prisons or draw
78%
Tanzania Prisons or Mtibwa Sugar
71%
Draw or Mtibwa Sugar
50%

Winning margin

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
23%
Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
73%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
38%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
15%
Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals
54%
Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals
18%
Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
69%
Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanzania Prisons at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Mtibwa Sugar away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.97 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mtibwa Sugar attack 0.50 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tanzania Prisons scores more
50%
level
29%
Mtibwa Sugar scores more
22%

Tanzania Prisons at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tanzania Prisons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tanzania Prisons vs Mtibwa Sugar

Tanzania Prisons and Mtibwa Sugar drew 0-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 3, 2023.

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.