Tanzania Prisons 1–2 Ihefu: Result & Stats

Tanzania Prisons

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ihefu

1/21/2023

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 21Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Tanzania Prisons46%

×Draw30%

Ihefu24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tanzania PrisonsExpected goals in this matchIhefu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.79

Tanzania Prisons

1.21

Ihefu

0.79

Tanzania Prisons creates 53% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 47 away

0.95

creates per match

0.57

1.02

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Tanzania Prisons

0.95

Ihefu

0.57

allows per match

Tanzania Prisons

1.02

Ihefu

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Ihefu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanzania Prisons ↓

Ihefu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tanzania Prisons or draw

76%

Tanzania Prisons or Ihefu

70%

Draw or Ihefu

54%

Winning margin

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+

20%

Ihefu wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals

70%

Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals

34%

Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals

12%

Ihefu 1+ goals

55%

Ihefu 2+ goals

19%

Ihefu 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)

66%

Ihefu (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanzania Prisons at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Ihefu away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.47 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.95 + Ihefu defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ihefu attack 0.57 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tanzania Prisons scores more

46%

level

30%

Ihefu scores more

24%

Tanzania Prisons at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tanzania Prisons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff