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Tanzania Prisons vs Gwambina — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
FT
1 – 1
Gwambina
Gwambina
7/18/2021Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 31Nelson Mandela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tanzania Prisons42%
×Draw29%
Gwambina29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanzania Prisons
1.24
Gwambina
0.98

Tanzania Prisons creates 27% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tanzania Prisons
0.95
Gwambina
0.94

allows per match

Tanzania Prisons
1.02
Gwambina
1.53

finishing

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par
Gwambina+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanzania Prisons ↓

Gwambina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tanzania Prisons or draw
71%
Tanzania Prisons or Gwambina
71%
Draw or Gwambina
58%

Winning margin

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
19%
Gwambina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
71%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
35%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
13%
Gwambina 1+ goals
62%
Gwambina 2+ goals
26%
Gwambina 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
59%
Gwambina (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanzania Prisons at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Gwambina away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.95 + Gwambina defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.24

Gwambina attack 0.94 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tanzania Prisons scores more
42%
level
29%
Gwambina scores more
29%

Tanzania Prisons at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tanzania Prisons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tanzania Prisons vs Gwambina

Tanzania Prisons and Gwambina drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at Nelson Mandela Stadium in Sumbawanga.