Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tanta SC vs Misr EL Makasa — Premier League 2018

Tanta SC
Tanta SC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Misr EL Makasa
Misr EL Makasa
9/11/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Tanta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tanta SC35%
×Draw30%
Misr EL Makasa36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanta SC
1.06
Misr EL Makasa
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Tanta SC
0.76
Misr EL Makasa
0.87

allows per match

Tanta SC
1.29
Misr EL Makasa
1.37

finishing

Tanta SC+0.00on par
Misr EL Makasa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanta SC ↓

Misr EL Makasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tanta SC or draw
64%
Tanta SC or Misr EL Makasa
70%
Draw or Misr EL Makasa
65%

Winning margin

Tanta SC wins by 2+
14%
Misr EL Makasa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tanta SC 1+ goals
65%
Tanta SC 2+ goals
29%
Tanta SC 3+ goals
9%
Misr EL Makasa 1+ goals
66%
Misr EL Makasa 2+ goals
29%
Misr EL Makasa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tanta SC (draw refunded)
49%
Misr EL Makasa (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanta SC at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Misr EL Makasa away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanta SC attack 0.76 + Misr EL Makasa defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.06

Misr EL Makasa attack 0.87 + Tanta SC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tanta SC scores more
35%
level
30%
Misr EL Makasa scores more
36%

Misr EL Makasa at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Misr EL Makasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tanta SC 0–2 Misr EL Makasa

Misr EL Makasa beat Tanta SC 2-0 in Premier League on September 11, 2020.

The match was played at Tanta Stadium in Tanta.