Tanta SC 1–0 El Gouna FC: Result & Stats

Tanta SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

El Gouna FC

1/21/2020

Premier League · Round 14Tanta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tanta SC32%

×Draw30%

El Gouna FC38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tanta SCExpected goals in this matchEl Gouna FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.10

Tanta SC

1.00

El Gouna FC

1.10

El Gouna FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 117 away

0.76

creates per match

0.91

1.29

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Tanta SC

0.76

El Gouna FC

0.91

allows per match

Tanta SC

1.29

El Gouna FC

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tanta SC+0.00on par

El Gouna FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanta SC ↓

El Gouna FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tanta SC or draw

62%

Tanta SC or El Gouna FC

70%

Draw or El Gouna FC

68%

Winning margin

Tanta SC wins by 2+

12%

El Gouna FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tanta SC 1+ goals

63%

Tanta SC 2+ goals

26%

Tanta SC 3+ goals

8%

El Gouna FC 1+ goals

67%

El Gouna FC 2+ goals

30%

El Gouna FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tanta SC (draw refunded)

46%

El Gouna FC (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanta SC at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

El Gouna FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.24 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanta SC attack 0.76 + El Gouna FC defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.00

El Gouna FC attack 0.91 + Tanta SC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tanta SC scores more

32%

level

30%

El Gouna FC scores more

38%

El Gouna FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "El Gouna FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff