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Tanjong Pagar vs DPMM FC Brunei — Premier League 2019

Tanjong Pagar
Tanjong Pagar
CANC
12:30
DPMM FC Brunei
DPMM FC Brunei
5/2/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Jurong East Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Tanjong Pagar28%
×Draw21%
DPMM FC Brunei51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanjong Pagar
1.51
DPMM FC Brunei
2.10

DPMM FC Brunei creates 39% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 40 away

creates per match

Tanjong Pagar
1.39
DPMM FC Brunei
1.70

allows per match

Tanjong Pagar
2.50
DPMM FC Brunei
1.63

finishing

Tanjong Pagar+0.00on par
DPMM FC Brunei+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanjong Pagar ↓

DPMM FC Brunei →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Tanjong Pagar or draw
49%
Tanjong Pagar or DPMM FC Brunei
79%
Draw or DPMM FC Brunei
72%

Winning margin

Tanjong Pagar wins by 2+
13%
DPMM FC Brunei wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Tanjong Pagar 1+ goals
78%
Tanjong Pagar 2+ goals
44%
Tanjong Pagar 3+ goals
19%
DPMM FC Brunei 1+ goals
88%
DPMM FC Brunei 2+ goals
62%
DPMM FC Brunei 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Tanjong Pagar (draw refunded)
35%
DPMM FC Brunei (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanjong Pagar at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.50 · 70 matches

DPMM FC Brunei away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanjong Pagar attack 1.39 + DPMM FC Brunei defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

DPMM FC Brunei attack 1.70 + Tanjong Pagar defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tanjong Pagar scores more
28%
level
21%
DPMM FC Brunei scores more
51%

DPMM FC Brunei at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "DPMM FC Brunei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tanjong Pagar host DPMM FC Brunei

May 2, 2020: Tanjong Pagar take on DPMM FC Brunei in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tanjong Pagar host DPMM FC Brunei at Jurong East Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.