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DPMM FC Brunei vs Tanjong Pagar — Premier League 2019

DPMM FC Brunei
DPMM FC Brunei
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tanjong Pagar
Tanjong Pagar
5/2/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 33Stadium Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

DPMM FC Brunei57%
×Draw19%
Tanjong Pagar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DPMM FC Brunei
2.40
Tanjong Pagar
1.52

DPMM FC Brunei creates 58% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 70 away

creates per match

DPMM FC Brunei
1.90
Tanjong Pagar
1.47

allows per match

DPMM FC Brunei
1.56
Tanjong Pagar
2.89

finishing

DPMM FC Brunei+0.00on par
Tanjong Pagar+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DPMM FC Brunei ↓

Tanjong Pagar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

DPMM FC Brunei or draw
76%
DPMM FC Brunei or Tanjong Pagar
81%
Draw or Tanjong Pagar
43%

Winning margin

DPMM FC Brunei wins by 2+
36%
Tanjong Pagar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

DPMM FC Brunei 1+ goals
91%
DPMM FC Brunei 2+ goals
69%
DPMM FC Brunei 3+ goals
42%
Tanjong Pagar 1+ goals
78%
Tanjong Pagar 2+ goals
45%
Tanjong Pagar 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

DPMM FC Brunei (draw refunded)
70%
Tanjong Pagar (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DPMM FC Brunei at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.56 · 41 matches

Tanjong Pagar away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DPMM FC Brunei attack 1.90 + Tanjong Pagar defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.40

Tanjong Pagar attack 1.47 + DPMM FC Brunei defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

DPMM FC Brunei scores more
57%
level
19%
Tanjong Pagar scores more
24%

DPMM FC Brunei at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "DPMM FC Brunei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: DPMM FC Brunei 2–1 Tanjong Pagar

DPMM FC Brunei beat Tanjong Pagar 2-1 in Premier League on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stadium Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah in Bandar Seri Begawan.