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Tanganyika vs Motema Pembe — Ligue 1 2019

Tanganyika
Tanganyika
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
5/8/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 7Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Tanganyika41%
×Draw28%
Motema Pembe31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanganyika
1.24
Motema Pembe
1.04

Tanganyika creates 19% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 83 away

creates per match

Tanganyika
1.54
Motema Pembe
1.14

allows per match

Tanganyika
0.94
Motema Pembe
0.94

finishing

Tanganyika+0.00on par
Motema Pembe+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanganyika ↓

Motema Pembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tanganyika or draw
69%
Tanganyika or Motema Pembe
72%
Draw or Motema Pembe
59%

Winning margin

Tanganyika wins by 2+
18%
Motema Pembe wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tanganyika 1+ goals
71%
Tanganyika 2+ goals
35%
Tanganyika 3+ goals
13%
Motema Pembe 1+ goals
65%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
28%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tanganyika (draw refunded)
57%
Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanganyika at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.94 · 35 matches

Motema Pembe away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.94 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanganyika attack 1.54 + Motema Pembe defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.24

Motema Pembe attack 1.14 + Tanganyika defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tanganyika scores more
41%
level
28%
Motema Pembe scores more
31%

Tanganyika at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tanganyika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tanganyika vs Motema Pembe

Motema Pembe beat Tanganyika 1-0 in Ligue 1 on May 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba in Lubumbashi.