Tanganyika 2–5 Don Bosco: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Tanganyika

FT

2 – 5

Don Bosco

5/14/2025

Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 9Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Tanganyika47%

×Draw28%

Don Bosco25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TanganyikaExpected goals in this matchDon Bosco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.90

Tanganyika

1.35

Don Bosco

0.90

Tanganyika creates 50% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 96 away

1.54

creates per match

0.85

0.94

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Tanganyika

1.54

Don Bosco

0.85

allows per match

Tanganyika

0.94

Don Bosco

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tanganyika+0.00on par

Don Bosco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanganyika ↓

Don Bosco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tanganyika or draw

75%

Tanganyika or Don Bosco

72%

Draw or Don Bosco

53%

Winning margin

Tanganyika wins by 2+

22%

Don Bosco wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tanganyika 1+ goals

74%

Tanganyika 2+ goals

39%

Tanganyika 3+ goals

15%

Don Bosco 1+ goals

59%

Don Bosco 2+ goals

23%

Don Bosco 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tanganyika (draw refunded)

65%

Don Bosco (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanganyika at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.94 · 35 matches

Don Bosco away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.16 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanganyika attack 1.54 + Don Bosco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.35

Don Bosco attack 0.85 + Tanganyika defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tanganyika scores more

47%

level

28%

Don Bosco scores more

25%

Tanganyika at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tanganyika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff