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Tanéka vs Tonnerre — Championnat National 2019

Tanéka
Tanéka
FT
0 – 3
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
5/23/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 6Stade Municipal de Natitingou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tanéka38%
×Draw34%
Tonnerre28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanéka
0.93
Tonnerre
0.74

Tanéka creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 86 away

creates per match

Tanéka
0.77
Tonnerre
0.80

allows per match

Tanéka
0.69
Tonnerre
1.09

finishing

Tanéka+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanéka ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Tanéka or draw
72%
Tanéka or Tonnerre
66%
Draw or Tonnerre
62%

Winning margin

Tanéka wins by 2+
14%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tanéka 1+ goals
61%
Tanéka 2+ goals
24%
Tanéka 3+ goals
7%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
52%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
17%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tanéka (draw refunded)
58%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanéka at home — creates 0.77, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanéka attack 0.77 + Tonnerre defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.93

Tonnerre attack 0.80 + Tanéka defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tanéka scores more
38%
level
34%
Tonnerre scores more
28%

Tanéka at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tanéka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Tanéka 0–3 Tonnerre

Tonnerre beat Tanéka 3-0 in Championnat National on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Natitingou in Natitingou.