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Tanéka vs Réal Sport — Championnat National 2019

Tanéka
Tanéka
FT
0 – 1
Réal Sport
Réal Sport
2/21/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 7Stade Municipal de Djougou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tanéka44%
×Draw35%
Réal Sport21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanéka
0.96
Réal Sport
0.57

Tanéka creates 68% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 82 away

creates per match

Tanéka
0.77
Réal Sport
0.46

allows per match

Tanéka
0.69
Réal Sport
1.16

finishing

Tanéka+0.00on par
Réal Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanéka ↓

Réal Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Tanéka or draw
79%
Tanéka or Réal Sport
65%
Draw or Réal Sport
56%

Winning margin

Tanéka wins by 2+
17%
Réal Sport wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tanéka 1+ goals
62%
Tanéka 2+ goals
25%
Tanéka 3+ goals
7%
Réal Sport 1+ goals
43%
Réal Sport 2+ goals
11%
Réal Sport 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Tanéka (draw refunded)
67%
Réal Sport (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanéka at home — creates 0.77, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Réal Sport away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.16 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanéka attack 0.77 + Réal Sport defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.96

Réal Sport attack 0.46 + Tanéka defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tanéka scores more
44%
level
35%
Réal Sport scores more
21%

Tanéka at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tanéka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tanéka vs Réal Sport

Réal Sport beat Tanéka 1-0 in Championnat National on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Djougou in Djougou.