Tanéka 0–0 Espoir Savalou: Result & Stats

Tanéka

FT

0 – 0

Espoir Savalou

6/6/2021

Championnat National · Relegation Round - 9Stade Municipal de Natitingou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tanéka36%

×Draw34%

Espoir Savalou30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TanékaExpected goals in this matchEspoir Savalou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

0.79

Tanéka

0.90

Espoir Savalou

0.79

Tanéka creates 14% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 101 away

0.77

creates per match

0.89

0.69

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Tanéka

0.77

Espoir Savalou

0.89

allows per match

Tanéka

0.69

Espoir Savalou

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tanéka+0.00on par

Espoir Savalou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanéka ↓

Espoir Savalou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–115%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Tanéka or draw

70%

Tanéka or Espoir Savalou

66%

Draw or Espoir Savalou

64%

Winning margin

Tanéka wins by 2+

13%

Espoir Savalou wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tanéka 1+ goals

59%

Tanéka 2+ goals

23%

Tanéka 3+ goals

6%

Espoir Savalou 1+ goals

55%

Espoir Savalou 2+ goals

19%

Espoir Savalou 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tanéka (draw refunded)

55%

Espoir Savalou (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanéka at home — creates 0.77, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Espoir Savalou away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanéka attack 0.77 + Espoir Savalou defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.90

Espoir Savalou attack 0.89 + Tanéka defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tanéka scores more

36%

level

34%

Espoir Savalou scores more

30%

Tanéka at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tanéka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff