Tanéka 2–0 Dadjè: Result & Stats

Tanéka

FT

2 – 0

Dadjè

4/28/2021

Championnat National · Relegation Round - 2Stade Municipal de Djougou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tanéka39%

×Draw33%

Dadjè28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TanékaExpected goals in this matchDadjè

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.79

Tanéka

1.00

Dadjè

0.79

Tanéka creates 27% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 106 away

0.77

creates per match

0.89

0.69

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Tanéka

0.77

Dadjè

0.89

allows per match

Tanéka

0.69

Dadjè

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tanéka+0.00on par

Dadjè+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanéka ↓

Dadjè →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Tanéka or draw

72%

Tanéka or Dadjè

67%

Draw or Dadjè

61%

Winning margin

Tanéka wins by 2+

15%

Dadjè wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tanéka 1+ goals

63%

Tanéka 2+ goals

26%

Tanéka 3+ goals

8%

Dadjè 1+ goals

55%

Dadjè 2+ goals

19%

Dadjè 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tanéka (draw refunded)

59%

Dadjè (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanéka at home — creates 0.77, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Dadjè away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.24 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanéka attack 0.77 + Dadjè defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.00

Dadjè attack 0.89 + Tanéka defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tanéka scores more

39%

level

33%

Dadjè scores more

28%

Tanéka at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tanéka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff