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Tanda vs Stella — Ligue 1 2019

Tanda
Tanda
FT
1 – 2
Stella
Stella
5/3/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 9Parc des Sports de Treichville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Tanda32%
×Draw31%
Stella38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanda
0.95
Stella
1.07

Stella creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 79 away

creates per match

Tanda
0.79
Stella
1.01

allows per match

Tanda
1.14
Stella
1.10

finishing

Tanda+0.00on par
Stella+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanda ↓

Stella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tanda or draw
62%
Tanda or Stella
69%
Draw or Stella
68%

Winning margin

Tanda wins by 2+
11%
Stella wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tanda 1+ goals
61%
Tanda 2+ goals
25%
Tanda 3+ goals
7%
Stella 1+ goals
66%
Stella 2+ goals
29%
Stella 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tanda (draw refunded)
45%
Stella (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanda at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Stella away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanda attack 0.79 + Stella defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Stella attack 1.01 + Tanda defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tanda scores more
32%
level
31%
Stella scores more
38%

Stella at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Tanda 1–2 Stella

Stella beat Tanda 2-1 in Ligue 1 on May 3, 2021.

The match was played at Parc des Sports de Treichville in Abidjan.