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Tanda vs Abengourou — Ligue 1 2019

Tanda
Tanda
FT
0 – 1
Abengourou
Abengourou
11/30/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 8Parc des Sports de Treichville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Tanda40%
×Draw30%
Abengourou30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanda
1.14
Abengourou
0.93

Tanda creates 23% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 57 away

creates per match

Tanda
0.79
Abengourou
0.72

allows per match

Tanda
1.14
Abengourou
1.49

finishing

Tanda+0.00on par
Abengourou+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanda ↓

Abengourou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tanda or draw
70%
Tanda or Abengourou
70%
Draw or Abengourou
60%

Winning margin

Tanda wins by 2+
17%
Abengourou wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tanda 1+ goals
68%
Tanda 2+ goals
32%
Tanda 3+ goals
11%
Abengourou 1+ goals
61%
Abengourou 2+ goals
24%
Abengourou 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tanda (draw refunded)
58%
Abengourou (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanda at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Abengourou away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.49 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanda attack 0.79 + Abengourou defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.14

Abengourou attack 0.72 + Tanda defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tanda scores more
40%
level
30%
Abengourou scores more
30%

Tanda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Tanda 0–1 Abengourou

Abengourou beat Tanda 1-0 in Ligue 1 on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Parc des Sports de Treichville in Abidjan.