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Tanabi vs Tupa — Paulista Série B 2026

Tanabi
Tanabi
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Tupa
Tupa
D. Vieira 90+2'
Marcelo Macola 20'
V. Fernando 12'
Unknown 10'
Unknown 45'
5/31/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Prefeito Alberto Víctolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tanabi53%
×Draw25%
Tupa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanabi
1.59
Tupa
0.93

Tanabi creates 71% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tanabi
1.50
Tupa
1.47

allows per match

Tanabi
0.39
Tupa
1.68

finishing

Tanabi+0.00on par
Tupa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanabi ↓

Tupa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tanabi or draw
78%
Tanabi or Tupa
75%
Draw or Tupa
47%

Winning margin

Tanabi wins by 2+
28%
Tupa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tanabi 1+ goals
80%
Tanabi 2+ goals
47%
Tanabi 3+ goals
21%
Tupa 1+ goals
61%
Tupa 2+ goals
24%
Tupa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tanabi (draw refunded)
71%
Tupa (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanabi at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.39 · 18 matches

Tupa away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanabi attack 1.50 + Tupa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.59

Tupa attack 1.47 + Tanabi defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tanabi scores more
53%
level
25%
Tupa scores more
22%

Tanabi at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tanabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
12'
V. Fernando
20'
Marcelo Macola
45'
90+2'
D. Vieira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tanabi 4 – 1 Tupa

Tanabi beat Tupa 4-1 in Paulista Série B on May 31, 2025.

Goals: ? (10', 45'), V. Fernando (12'), Marcelo Macola (20'), D. Vieira (90+2').

The match was played at Estádio Prefeito Alberto Víctolo in Tanabi, São Paulo.