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Tanabi vs Olímpia — Paulista Série B 2026

Tanabi
Tanabi
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Olímpia
Olímpia
Unknown 90', 85', 69', 59', 23'
6/21/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Prefeito Alberto Víctolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tanabi68%
×Draw21%
Olímpia12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanabi
1.92
Olímpia
0.64

Tanabi creates 200% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Tanabi
1.50
Olímpia
0.89

allows per match

Tanabi
0.39
Olímpia
2.33

finishing

Tanabi+0.00on par
Olímpia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 53Over: 4753%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 60Yes: 4060%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanabi ↓

Olímpia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tanabi or draw
88%
Tanabi or Olímpia
79%
Draw or Olímpia
32%

Winning margin

Tanabi wins by 2+
42%
Olímpia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tanabi 1+ goals
85%
Tanabi 2+ goals
57%
Tanabi 3+ goals
30%
Olímpia 1+ goals
47%
Olímpia 2+ goals
14%
Olímpia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tanabi (draw refunded)
85%
Olímpia (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanabi at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.39 · 18 matches

Olímpia away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanabi attack 1.50 + Olímpia defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Olímpia attack 0.89 + Tanabi defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Tanabi scores more
68%
level
21%
Olímpia scores more
12%

Tanabi at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Tanabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
59'
69'
85'
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tanabi vs Olímpia

Tanabi beat Olímpia 5-0 in Paulista Série B on June 21, 2025.

Goals: ? (23', 59', 69', 85', 90').

The match was played at Estádio Prefeito Alberto Víctolo in Tanabi, São Paulo.