Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tanabi vs Inter de Bebedouro — Paulista Série B 2026

Tanabi
Tanabi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Inter de Bebedouro
Inter de Bebedouro
8/10/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Quarter-finalsEstádio Prefeito Alberto Víctolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Tanabi36%
×Draw30%
Inter de Bebedouro34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanabi
1.05
Inter de Bebedouro
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

creates per match

Tanabi
1.50
Inter de Bebedouro
1.60

allows per match

Tanabi
0.39
Inter de Bebedouro
0.60

finishing

Tanabi+0.00on par
Inter de Bebedouro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 66Over: 3466%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 59Yes: 4159%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanabi ↓

Inter de Bebedouro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tanabi or draw
66%
Tanabi or Inter de Bebedouro
70%
Draw or Inter de Bebedouro
64%

Winning margin

Tanabi wins by 2+
14%
Inter de Bebedouro wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tanabi 1+ goals
65%
Tanabi 2+ goals
28%
Tanabi 3+ goals
9%
Inter de Bebedouro 1+ goals
63%
Inter de Bebedouro 2+ goals
26%
Inter de Bebedouro 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tanabi (draw refunded)
52%
Inter de Bebedouro (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanabi at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.39 · 18 matches

Inter de Bebedouro away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanabi attack 1.50 + Inter de Bebedouro defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.05

Inter de Bebedouro attack 1.60 + Tanabi defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tanabi scores more
36%
level
30%
Inter de Bebedouro scores more
34%

Tanabi at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tanabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tanabi vs Inter de Bebedouro

Tanabi and Inter de Bebedouro drew 0-0 in Paulista Série B on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Prefeito Alberto Víctolo in Tanabi, São Paulo.